Soya Market Update: Stable Global Supply, Tighter European Availability
01 Oct, 2026
The global soybean market is entering a key transition period, with the US harvest underway and planting beginning in South America. While overall supply remains comfortable, a weaker European crop is creating a more challenging outlook for some regional markets.
For buyers of soya-based ingredients, this update looks at where the market stands today and the factors likely to influence availability and pricing through 2027.
What is driving the market?
US Market
The 2026 US soybean crop is forecast at around 4.5 billion bushels, according to the USDA Crop Production Report published on 11 September 2026, slightly above previous estimates. Increased acreage and favourable growing conditions have supported production, while export availability is also expected to remain strong. Harvest is now underway. However, wet conditions in parts of the Midwest have slowed fieldwork, causing some short-term logistical tightness in nearby supplies.
European Crop
While relatively small in a global context, the impact is more significant for European supply chains. Lower domestic production means less locally grown material is available, particularly for markets where European-origin and non-GM specifications are important.
South America
Planting of the next Brazilian soybean crop is now underway, with early rainfall supporting progress across key growing regions. Expectations remain positive, with another large crop anticipated. This is expected to provide an important source of supply as the market moves through the 2026/27 season, helping to reinforce global availability following the US harvest.
Market Outlook
The outlook for conventional soybean supply remains positive, with the US harvest and upcoming South American crop expected to provide substantial availability into 2027.
The key area to watch remains Europe. Lower production means regional availability is likely to be tighter, particularly for buyers seeking European-origin and non-GM material. How this affects pricing will depend on existing stock levels, import requirements and the availability of suitable alternative origins.
Over the coming months, market direction will be shaped by US harvest progress, European stock positions and the development of the new South American crop.
While the global market is not currently pointing towards a major supply shortage, the tighter European crop means origin and specification are likely to play a greater role in availability and pricing through 2027. Buyers with specific origin, identity-preserved or non-GM requirements may wish to review forward supply plans as the South American growing season develops.
