El Niño 2015-2016

So what is El Niño?

El Niño is the name given to an irregularly occurring weather phenomenon of the South American Coast in the Pacific. In this area the trade winds typically blow from east to west, but when they weaken, the sea surface temperatures start to rise, setting off a chain of atmospheric impacts. El Niño usual occurs every two to seven years, and its power can vary between strong and weak. Strong El Niños can cause a huge disruption in the weather patterns around the world, bringing drought to the west parts of the Pacific, such as Australia, South Asia and Africa, and heavy rains and flooding to the other side of the Pacific, in countries such as Argentina and Peru. In the UK, stronger El Niños bring freezing winters, and heavy snow and rainfall.

Why is this year’s El Niño such a big thing?

Well first there is the fact scientists predicted a big El Niño for 2014-15, but it kept defying predictions and not showing up. Finally, after several false alarms, in March scientists found the beginnings of a weak El Niño in the Pacific. They didn’t believe it would amount to anything big, instead predicted that it would peter out by October or November. Instead it has kept on getting bigger and bigger.

The El Niño in 1997-1998 ended up causing an estimated $35 billion (around £23 billion) in destruction, and around 23,000 deaths worldwide. The highest sea surface temperatures in 1997 was +2.75ºC above average. This time it has surpassed +3ºC and could still rise a little higher.

(NASA/JPL)

El Niño is already affecting the weather globally. The average number of cyclones in the west Pacific per season is two, but so far this season there has been seven. It has triggered longer droughts in Indonesia, allowing the man-made peatland fires to spiral out of control, creating a toxic haze that has spread as far as Singapore.

And this is just the start of it. El Niño normally brings extra dry weather to Australia, that reduces crop yields and increases the risk of wildfires. The drier, hotter weather also effects crop yields in South Asian countries such as India. On the other side of the coin, El Niño can bring destructive flooding and mudslides to countries such as Peru, and to a lesser extent the United States. The biggest problem though is that – like snowflakes – no two El Niños are the same. They all unfold differently, so there is no way to accurately predict what impact an El Niño will have.

How is this going to effect crops worldwide?

As already mentioned, this El Niño will have far reaching global effects. This means that crops all over the world will be effected. Some will be effected in a positive way, but many others in a negative way. Some areas of the World will have record yields because of the change from the normal weather patterns, while in other parts of the World yields will fall dramatically. Price increases are predicted for (among others) Sugar, Wheat, Maize, Cocoa, Rice, but the prices for Soyabeans and Coffee are expected to fall. Changes in the Supply/Demand of these products in turn effects the prices and availability of alternative products. World food prices rose in September for the first time in eighteen months, but the full impact wont be known for several months yet. For instance Thailand is forecasting rice production will be down by 15-20%!