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The global soybean market is entering a key transition period, with the US harvest underway and planting beginning in South America. While overall supply remains comfortable, a weaker European crop is creating a more challenging outlook for some regional markets.

For buyers of soya-based ingredients, this update looks at where the market stands today and the factors likely to influence availability and pricing through 2027.

What is driving the market?

US Market

The 2026 US soybean crop is forecast at around 4.5 billion bushels, according to the USDA Crop Production Report published on 11 September 2026, slightly above previous estimates. Increased acreage and favourable growing conditions have supported production, while export availability is also expected to remain strong. Harvest is now underway. However, wet conditions in parts of the Midwest have slowed fieldwork, causing some short-term logistical tightness in nearby supplies.

European Crop

While relatively small in a global context, the impact is more significant for European supply chains. Lower domestic production means less locally grown material is available, particularly for markets where European-origin and non-GM specifications are important.

South America

Planting of the next Brazilian soybean crop is now underway, with early rainfall supporting progress across key growing regions. Expectations remain positive, with another large crop anticipated. This is expected to provide an important source of supply as the market moves through the 2026/27 season, helping to reinforce global availability following the US harvest.

Market Outlook

The outlook for conventional soybean supply remains positive, with the US harvest and upcoming South American crop expected to provide substantial availability into 2027.

The key area to watch remains Europe. Lower production means regional availability is likely to be tighter, particularly for buyers seeking European-origin and non-GM material. How this affects pricing will depend on existing stock levels, import requirements and the availability of suitable alternative origins.

Over the coming months, market direction will be shaped by US harvest progress, European stock positions and the development of the new South American crop.

While the global market is not currently pointing towards a major supply shortage, the tighter European crop means origin and specification are likely to play a greater role in availability and pricing through 2027. Buyers with specific origin, identity-preserved or non-GM requirements may wish to review forward supply plans as the South American growing season develops.

As the 2026 European maize harvest gathers pace, attention is turning to crop performance across the continent. Following a growing season marked by significant weather variability, the latest forecasts point to a mixed production outlook, with yield potential reduced in several key growing regions but stronger prospects emerging in parts of Eastern Europe.

While drought and heat stress have weighed on market sentiment for much of the summer, recent crop assessments suggest that stronger production in countries such as Romania could help offset some of the shortfalls seen elsewhere. As harvesting progresses through September and October, the balance between weaker yields in the west and stronger output in the east will become increasingly important in determining overall maize availability for the year ahead.

Harvest Progress Across Europe

Early harvest reports highlight the contrasting conditions experienced across Europe’s major maize-growing regions. Prolonged periods of hot, dry weather affected crop development in several key producing countries, particularly France, Germany, Hungary and Slovakia.

As a result, analysts have reduced yield expectations compared with earlier forecasts. Estimates were revised lower as the season progressed, moving from reductions of around 6-7% in July to as much as 14% below the five-year average in some regions.

The timing of these weather challenges has been particularly significant, with high temperatures coinciding with critical pollination and grain-filling stages. This limited yield potential across many crops and contributed to further downward revisions, leaving overall European production below the more optimistic expectations seen earlier in the year.

Although conditions have varied considerably between regions, the impact of summer weather remains a key theme across this season’s harvest, with final production figures now dependent on harvest performance over the coming weeks.

Eastern Europe Offers a Brighter Outlook

Despite the challenges experienced across parts of Western and Central Europe, crop prospects in Eastern Europe remain considerably more favourable.

Romania, one of the European Union’s most important maize-producing nations, is expected to deliver one of the strongest harvest recoveries in the region. Recent field assessments suggest production could reach approximately 8.7 million tonnes, representing an increase of around 20% compared with last year.

Average yields are estimated at 5.1 tonnes per hectare, a substantial 34% improvement year-on-year. This recovery follows a difficult 2025 season, when drought conditions significantly reduced output across much of the country.

Perhaps most notable, higher output is being achieved despite a reduction in planted area. Current estimates indicate Romanian maize acreage is more than 10% lower than last year’s 1.9 million hectares, highlighting how improved growing conditions and stronger crop performance have more than compensated for reduced planting.

Neighbouring producing regions have also reported improved crop conditions compared with the previous season, providing additional support to Eastern European supply expectations and helping to balance some of the production challenges experienced elsewhere in Europe.

What This Means for the Market

Market sentiment has improved considerably compared with earlier in the growing season. While drought and heat stress have reduced yield expectations across parts of Western and Central Europe, stronger crop prospects in Eastern Europe are helping to alleviate some of those concerns.

The balance between regional production shortfalls and stronger Eastern European output will be a key factor in determining overall maize availability for 2027. Although supply expectations now appear more balanced than they did earlier in the season, some uncertainty remains until harvest results are fully confirmed.

For manufacturers and buyers reliant on maize-derived ingredients, now is a sensible time to review forward requirements and consider securing coverage where appropriate. While the outlook has improved, final yield outcomes, harvest quality and any late-season weather disruptions will continue to influence market direction in the months ahead.

Tapioca starch prices have risen sharply since the start of 2026. Based on export data out of Thailand and Vietnam and current cassava crop forecasts, this update sets out where prices stand today, why they have climbed so far, and what the outlook is through the end of 2027.

Tapioca starch export prices out of Thailand have climbed approximately 45% since early January 2026, peaking in mid-June and holding near that level through July. Vietnam’s prices have risen by a similar amount over the same period.

What is behind the price increase?

Weather: drought conditions across key Thai growing regions have reduced root yields through the 2025/26 season. Dry conditions have persisted long enough that planted area and yield data in these provinces are now being watched closely as an early signal of how supply will develop over the rest of the year.

Disease pressure: Cassava mosaic disease and pest issues have continued to cut into harvestable output in both Thailand and Vietnam. Supply has also been patchy by region: in Vietnam, northern stocks ran low by February, and processors in the Central Highlands and Tay Ninh saw sudden price spikes as material ran short.

Planting material shortage: a shortage of healthy stem cuttings has limited replanting in Thailand, constraining next season’s supply as well as this one. That domestic shortfall was compounded in late January 2026 by tighter border controls restricting cassava imports from Laos and Cambodia, which had previously helped top up Thai processors’ supply.

Sustained demand: Thai factory processing capacity fell to around 62% in January 2026 as plants competed for scarce root, and buyer demand hasn’t eased either. China, the region’s largest export market, imported approximately 543,200 tonnes of tapioca starch in March 2026 alone for its food, fermentation, and animal-feed sectors, keeping competition for the reduced supply high even as prices climbed.

What does the future look like?

Thai industry forecasters project fresh cassava output to recover strongly in 2026, up an estimated 10–12% as La Niña-driven weather improves, before easing back again in 2027 as drier conditions are expected to return.

Prices are expected to remain above pre-2026 norms through the forecast window. That broad pattern is echoed in raw cassava root price forecasts, which are expected to ease in 2026 before firming again in 2027 as supply tightens once more.

For buyers, timing matters here. As the recovering 2026/27 crop reaches processors over the second half of the year, the easing this forecast points to should start feeding through into offer, but on the data available today, that relief looks temporary rather than permanent. Once drier conditions return in 2027, the same cassava-supply pressure that drove this year’s 45% price increase could reassert itself. That makes late 2026 the most likely window to lock in supply on better terms: waiting for prices to fall further risks missing that window rather than improving on it. Buyers who move while the market is easing, rather than after it has already turned, are best placed to secure predictable costs before tightening returns.

Existing Market:

Currently, The market is stable, however, showing peaks randomly (5 to 7 % either side) which, we believe, will not be consistent, as till new crop arrive, there is approx. 5 to 7 weeks left. Looking at the current supply vs demand, it seems that there will be no much carryover this year. On the positive notes, we are not expecting significant variation in prices this year till new crop arrive hence recommending to buy stock up to May 2024 to eliminate stock-out situation. The current market update is given below:

Psyllium seed standard quality: INR3500 per 20 kg

Psyllium Seed Premium Quality: INR3900 per 20 kg                          

Daily arrival: 1500 bags of 75 kg seeds from farmers

Daily trade: 6500 bags (farmers + traders)

2024 Crop & Market:

Psyllium Crop 2024 is ripening in the field and is expected to start arriving in the market by mid-March 2024. Looking at the early estimate, it seems that this year the crop is significantly good in terms of quality and quantity. However, we still need to wait for 4 to 6 weeks, as this duration is so important for a seeds to develop and get mature well with pro-environmental condition, considering there will not be any surprises e.g. natural disaster, unseasonal rain and so on. We are keeping close watch on the crop development and we will be able to comment in detail after a detailed field survey, which we have planned early March. We will keep you posted accordingly with our detailed crop survey report. 

Usually, crop arrival starts slowly from mid-March and it reaches the peak from early April onwards. We usually experience the mixed seeds (carryover from previous year and fresh seeds) in early stage (mid-March) arrival. Followed by all fresh seeds during peak arrival duration which will be from April onwards and that is potentially good quality seeds. The carry over stock of 2023 will be in negligible this year. The demand from international market is so positive and raw material raw material prices also looks firm. 

Further due to the Red Sea / Suez canal issue the transit time has been also increased around 2 weeks. So please plan your requirement accordingly.  

Considering the above exiting market and forecasting details, we suggest you buy till May 2024, and hold your further buying till the new crop arrives.

India’s Soyabean Production:
India’s soybean crop, which is the fifth largest in the world, is expected to be slightly lower this year due to a slump in soil moisture. According to India’s meteorological department data, India received its lowest rainfall in over a century in August, with a 36% reduction compared with the usual amount. Normally, August receives the second-highest rainfall of the monsoon months after July. India’s soybean production is expected to be 11.87 million tons in the 2023-24 season, marking a reduction of 4.73% from the previous year.

Global Soybean Production:
According to the latest USDA report for the 2023-24 season, the world is expected to have good supplies of soybean throughout the year. The following table shows the production estimates in million tons:

Conclusion:
Looking at the crop size, there is a likelihood of a stable price scenario in the coming months. Buyers should keep buying from now as prices at harvest are mostly at the lowest level. However, it is uncertain how much prices will adjust by the end of the year, especially with the possibility of an El Niño event that could change the game in the coming months.

Economic Forecast Briefing Note: Rice Market Analysis

Introduction

The global rice market faces significant challenges due to escalating food inflation in Asia, resulting in export restrictions by major rice-producing countries. This article provides an overview of the current state of the rice market, focusing on key players like India, Pakistan, Thailand, and their potential impact on the European market. Additionally, the El Niño event poses further difficulties for the rice industry.

Market Trends in Asia

India: As one of the world’s largest rice exporters, India has taken measures to address food inflation, including a 20% export tax on parboiled rice and a minimum export price of $1,200 USD/T FOB for basmati rice. These actions aim to stabilize domestic prices, compounded by adverse weather conditions affecting rice production.
Pakistan: Despite earlier market signs of decline, Pakistan has raised its minimum export prices to align with India.
Thailand: Thailand faces challenges due to delayed and insufficient monsoons, potentially reducing fragrant rice production and increasing long-grain rice prices due to high export demand. Concerns also persist regarding water reserves and spring harvests.

European Impact

Spain: Drought conditions have significantly reduced rice cultivation areas in Spain, with recent heavy rains negatively affecting yields and rice quality.
Italy: Although rice cultivation areas have decreased slightly, more normal yields are expected in 2023. This may lead to a decrease in European rice prices, particularly for rice used in risotto dishes, contingent upon market demand.
Customs Duties: Import duties on cargo rice in Europe increased from €30 to €42.50/T on January 1, 2023.

El Niño’s Impact

The “El Niño” event, maintaining a strong hold as we end 2023, presents additional challenges:

Weather Conditions: El Niño is anticipated to bring hotter and drier weather, negatively affecting rice production in Asia, and impacting global food security.
Price Increases: Price hikes due to production deficits have already been observed, affecting countries like Myanmar, Cambodia, and Nepal.
Vulnerability: Reduced precipitation, export restrictions, and fertilizer shortages are expected to worsen the situation in rice-producing nations, potentially leading to food shortages and higher farming costs.

Conclusion

The global rice market is facing unprecedented challenges. Political decisions made in the region will continue to reverberate globally, potentially affecting European markets. Monitoring these developments and their potential impacts is crucial for stakeholders in the rice industry.